Metodologias de Previsão de Mercado de Energia Elétrica: Uma Análise Comparativa em Âmbito Sul Americano (Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis)

Tesoro Elena Del Carpio Huayllas (tesoroelena@hotmail.com), Dorel Soares Ramos (dorelram@usp.br)


Universidade de São Paulo
This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: Sept. 2010
Volume: 8,   Issue: 5 
ISSN: 1548-0992


Abstract:
In this paper, a comparative analysis of the electric power long-term forecasting methodologies, used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electricity market. The abovementioned forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS© program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Index Terms:
Forecasting methodologies, Electric power, Long-term forecast, South America.   


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