Expansión de la transmisión bajo incertidumbre en el sistema chileno via Minmax Regret y algoritmos genéticos (Transmission expansion under uncertainty in the Chilean System via Minmax Regret with GA)

Daniel Charlin (dcharlin@systep.cl)1, Hugh Rudnick (hrudnick@ing.puc.cl)2, Juan Carlos Araneda (jcaraneda@transelec.cl)3

1Systep Ingenieria y Diseno SA
2Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
3Transelec SA

This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: March 2015
Volume: 13,   Issue: 3 
ISSN: 1548-0992

Transmission planning has been broadly studied through the development of minimum cost models, adapting to the forecasts of generator and consumer requirements. This research considers that a single planner determines the transmission system expansion, while the generation expansion is decided by different independent market agents, and generation supply becomes an uncertainty, hampering the planner's decision making. Under this context, the planner's and the generation market agents' individual decisions are in a constant struggle because the planner does not decide installing a line unless there is certainty that a power station will be installed, and vice versa. The methodology proposed develops a dynamic expansion model that minimizes the maximum regret, allowing the definition of a robust transmission system expansion. In addition, a heuristic tool is used through genetic algorithms to provide the planner with a ranking of the best configurations. The tool proposed will be useful for the planner, allowing to decide considering the uncertainty of the decisions of the generation market agents.

Index Terms:
Decision analysis, transmission planning under uncertainty, minmax regret, genetic algorithms   

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