Estado del Arte, Evaluación de la confiabilidad en el Sistema de Transmisión basado en el método de Monte Carlo (State of Art, Reliability Assessment in the Transmission System based on Monte Carlo Method)

Jefferson Ricardo Haro (jharov@est.ups.edu.ec)1, Esteban Inga (einga@ups.edu.ec)1


1Universidad Politécnica Salesiana

This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: Jan. 2016
Volume: 14,   Issue: 1 
ISSN: 1548-0992


Abstract:
This paper presents a reliability assessment applied to the transmission system, considering faults that cause an interruption the service of electric energy. The goal is to predict the real behavior of the transmission system to a number of failures using Monte Carlo method; for reasons, that estimate analytically the future behavior of the system, it is impossible due to the complexity of the cause-effect relationships, to solve problems of this kind are used a probabilistic theory. Therefore, with Monte Carlo method is calculated the reliability index for quantifying the operational performance against possible random failures. Consequently, in this work we can estimate the probability of failure basing on the problem of reliability by blackouts or unpredictable interruptions induced in the transmission system with Monte Carlo is proposed analyze these random events. This reliability assessment is essential to determine the unavailability and insecurity of the transmission network, which allows you to perform actions to prevent blackouts.

Index Terms:
smart grids, reliability assessment, availability, monte carlo, transmission system, blackout, random number, stochastic, deterministic.   


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