Estado del Arte, Confiabilidad en Sistemas Eléctricos de Distribución Basado en el Modelo Estocástico de Markov (State of Art, Reliability In Electrical Distribution Systems Based On Markov Stochastic Model)

Carlos Eduardo Paida Tenemaza (, Esteban Mauricio Inga Ortega (

1Universidad Politécnica Salesiana

This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: Feb. 2016
Volume: 14,   Issue: 2 
ISSN: 1548-0992

This paper presents a technical model for the study and evaluation of the expected reliability indices of an electrical distribution system, this assessment focuses on the classification and determination of states of different network components, considering flaws in the other elements. An algorithm to define these states, for any distribution network based on Markov chain is proposed. Particularly, a Markov model is used to calculate the frequency of the availability and network failure based on known global indices as system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) and the system average interruption duration index (SAIDI). The goal is to ensure the availability, continuity and quality of electricity supply to each end user by predicting future distribution system based mainly on the operation and failure of a system with a given number of elements. The proposed model focuses on the evaluation of cycle and residence time of each state, in order to reduce the state space at each load point. The proposed techniques reduce the number of states and size of the transition matrix without affecting the accuracy of calculation.

Index Terms:
smart grids, power distribution systems, markov models, reliability, resiliency, monte carlo, transition probability, saifi, saidi, weibull distribution.   

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