Previsão do consumo de eletricidade do Brasil com a Técnica de Suavização Exponencial de Pegels (Forecasting Brazil's electricity consumption with Pegels Exponential Smoothing Techniques)

Paula Medina Maçaira (paulamacaira@gmail.com)1, Reinaldo Castro Sousa (reinaldo@ele.puc-rio.br)1, Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira (cyrino@puc-rio.br)1


1Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro

This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: March 2016
Volume: 14,   Issue: 3 
ISSN: 1548-0992


Abstract:
After the 2001 energy crises in Brazil, the energy sector priority has been the planning and consequently the forecast middle and long term energy consumption. The Energy Research Company (EPE for short) is in charge of publishing two official reports: "The Ten Year Energy Planning" and "The National Energy Planning" which contain, among other things, the forecast for longer lead times. In the present formulation, these horizons are 2023 and 2050. This paper aims to model and forecast the Brazilian energy consumption aggregated and disaggregated by class of consumption with Pegels Exponential Smoothing method. In addition to the forecast with the best model in sample, an optimization procedure of the model hyperparameters is carried out in order to adjust each one of the forecasted values with the figures provided by EPE. The results obtained show that it is possible to predict satisfactorily the electricity consumption up to 2050 for all energy sectors.

Index Terms:
Brazilian electricity sector, Time Series, Standard Pegels, Damped Pegels   


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