Predicción de Series Cortas con el metodo BEMA: aplicación a series cortas de lluvia de agua acumulada (Short-series Prediction with BEMA Approach: application to short rainfall series)

Cristian Rodriguez Rivero (crodriuguezrivero@ieee.org)1, Julian Pucheta (julian.pucheta.ar@ieee.org)1, Josef Baumgartner (josef.s.baumgartner@gmail,com)1, Sergio Laboret (slaboret@yahoo.com.ar)1, Victor Sauchelli (victorsauchelli@gmail.com)1


1Universidad Nacional de Cordoba

This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: Aug. 2016
Volume: 14,   Issue: 8 
ISSN: 1548-0992


Abstract:
This paper contributes with short time series prediction for complete and incomplete datasets based on a new framework by means of Bayesian enhanced modified approach (BEMA) combining permutation entropy. The focus of the proposed filter with particularly interest in incomplete datasets or missing data is by changing the structure of the predictor filter according to data model selected, in which the Bayesian approach can be combined with entropic information of the series. The simplest method adopted to imputing the missing data on the dataset is by linear average smoothing, then computational results are evaluated on high roughness time series selected from benchmark series, in which they are compared with artificial neural networks (ANN) nonlinear filters such as Bayesian Enhanced approach (BEA) and Bayesian Approach (BA) proposed in recent work, in order to show a better performance of BEMA filter. These results support the applicability of permutation entropy in analyzing the dynamic behavior of chaotic time series for short series predictions.

Index Terms:
short rainfall series, forecasting, permutation entropy, Bayesian enhanced modified approach, complete and incomplete datasets   


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