Análise de Risco e métodos quantitativos para previsõs de Banda Larga móvel no Brasil (Risk Analysis and Quantitative Methods for Mobile Broadband Forecasting in Brazil)

Humberto Bruno Pontes Silva (, Alessandro Roosevelt Silva Ribeiro (, Tiago Rodrigo Alves de Souza (, Simone Borges Simão Monteiro (, João Carlos Félix Souza (

1Agência Nacional de Telecomunicações
3Superior Tribunal Militar
4Universidade de Brasília

This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: Nov. 2016
Volume: 14,   Issue: 11 
ISSN: 1548-0992

This study proposes the implementation of risk management as recommended in ISO 31000, to increase the efficiency and effectiveness in achieving one of the strategic objectives of the National Telecommunications Agency, namely: Expand the access and use of services, with quality and suitable price. As a specific goal sought to the provisions of the Brazilian Budget Plan, known as PPA 2016-2019, with the target set for mobile broadband reaches 90% of mobile accesses in 2019. Thus, materials were collected and theoretical basis to start the management process risk based primarily on ISO 31000, integrated with practices available to the public service as well as the regulations and others issues. By this work, it will be determined the internal and external context so that in a next step can be identified, evaluated and managed the risks involved in this process through specific tools described in ISO 31010. This paper shows that the structured process risk management can contribute to better governance and the achievement of its strategic objectives.

Index Terms:
Risk Analysis, Digital Inclusion, Mobile Broadband, ISO 31000, Internal and External Context, Quantitative Methods,   

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