Simulação de Monte Carlo para Planejamento e Decisões em Projeto de Transmissão de Energia (Monte Carlo Simulation for Planning and Decisions Making in Transmission Project of Electricity)

Guilherme Leite Saboya (gsaboya7@gmail.com)1, Osvaldo Luiz Gonçalves Quelhas (oquelhas@uol.com.br)1, Rodrigo Goyannes Gusmão Caiado (rodrigoggcaiado@gmail.com)1, Sergio Luiz Braga França (sfranca@latec.uff.br)1, Marcelo Jasmim Meiriño (marcelo@latec.uff.br)1


1Universidade Federal Fluminense

This paper appears in: Revista IEEE América Latina

Publication Date: March 2017
Volume: 15,   Issue: 3 
ISSN: 1548-0992


Abstract:
This research aims to propose guidelines for decisions in the planning stage in electric transmission project. The focus is on capital and labor intensive projects, extremely complex. This research is exploratory and seeks to qualify and quantify a planning electric power transmission project. This planning aims to good preparation, structuring, and assessment to support decision on the organization's strategy for the enterprise contract. The goal is to compose a model to be studied based on the planning and risks review, generating scenarios derived from Monte Carlo simulations to guide decision making and also provide the probabilistic reference to the sequence of the project implementation and its inherent uncertainties. The data were modeled and simulated from a real case of an energy transmission auctioned in 2012. The simulation presented probabilistic outcomes for scenarios based on estimates, scope understanding and measured risks as the maturity of the available information and perceived uncertainties.

Index Terms:
Decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation, Modeling risk analysis, Project planning   


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