That wasn't the plan, of course. This decade was supposed to see the incumbents with the most lobbying clout win. Congress passed a tangle of laws to accommodate the "lobbyists" and "donors" in the late 1990s. In part, these laws helped to ensure that the upstarts were squashed. They erected barriers to protect monopolies, to slow innovation, and to regulate technology [2].

And if that wasn't enough, Congress allowed the Internet's status as a tax-free zone to expire [3]. How can you compete by selling products electronically if you have to pay the same or more taxes, plus shipping costs? You can't. That's why mail order catalog sales and local stores have always been taxed differently. It's not rocket science, and it's not new.

Then came September 11, the follow-up attacks, and our reactions. A key contribution by engineers has always been to craft the infrastructure that underpins our civilization. What we've learned was that much of our nation's infrastructure was in bad shape even before the WTC bombings. Consider the distressed state of the airlines, burger-flipper-based airport security, the post office, health care, our overstressed prisons, courts, and police, etc. These are in even worse condition now.

The government's first reaction, predictably, was to throw money (our money, incidentally) at the problem. They gave the airlines billions, and the airlines responded by pocketing the money and laying off employees without providing them with due benefits. After public outrage, saner heads prevailed, layoffs were reduced, and benefits were paid.

Still, throwing money at the old infrastructure is NOT the answer. It's never worked. Consider K12 education. We've thrown money at the schools for decades. From 1960 to 2000, funding per student increased by almost 400%, but test scores stayed the same or actually declined [4]. We don't need to repeat that experiment for air transport or for our other vital infrastructures, do we?

My son the lawyer calls engineering "the last noble profession." Perhaps that's because we can still dream, and, better, we have the skills to turn our dreams into reality. Rather than becoming depressed about the status quo, let's dream together.

What if air transport was different? The current system has been deteriorating for years. Even before September 11, the airlines more resembled the Mexican bus system than something suitable for civilized transport. The all-time low for customer service and safety was probably marked by the Value Jet disaster, but the comfort, efficiency, hub congestion, and reliability of the airlines were just not very good. Even before the terrorist acts prompted long security delays, it was normal to spend hours in each airport. One's odds of getting to a destination on time were less than even. If you needed to be somewhere for a meeting, you'd better plan to get there a day early. Air travel was grueling. It's worse now.

So what's the answer? New technology. Just before September 11, one of the largest orders in general aviation history was booked-$750 million for 1,000 jets. New technology, small jets promise the ability to provide air taxi service for about the cost of coach seats. Glass cockpits, GPS, and efficient engines are promising. A firm called Eclipse Aviation wants to build the airplanes, and a company named Nimbus Group wants to provide the service.

There are other alternatives. Are you a conservative investor? Warren Buffett is making millions from his investments in Flexjet, which provides fractional leasing of conventional corporate jets to small- to medium-sized firms. Are you venturesome? Just figure out a way to get low-cost, mass deployment of broadband, secure, electronic conferencing and document transmission, and you will become very wealthy.

A few years ago, computer sales hit a brick wall. What got things moving again was "digital convergence" and the Internet. Unfortunately, the socalled Information Superhighway proved to be vapor, and the local phone companies choked off broadband Internet access [5]. Eventually, the entire tech sector collapsed. Still, the right choices could reverse this and reboot high tech.

[1] L. Conigliaro, "Backing out of the bubble," Goldman Sachs report; also see Wired, p. 78, Nov. 2001.
[2] J.D. Trudel, "Innovation in Sight," IEEE Eng. Manag. Rev., vol. 28, no. 4, 2000.
[3] The Senate, with much leadership from Ron Wyden of Oregon, recently passed a bill to reinstate the Internet as a taxfree zone. Still, lobbyists are resisting this. Most still expect the Internet to be taxed.
[4] Wall Street Journal, editorial page, 20 Dec. 1999.
[5] John F. Ince, "DSL's need for speed," Upside, pp. 44-49, Nov. 2001, reports an amusing incident. During one of Bill Clinton's many trips to California, he stopped to visit a retirement community in Silicon Valley. Exploiting the photo op and his legendary empathy skills, he reached out to one woman, took her hand, and asked intently, "If there was one thing that I could get for you, what would it be?" Without hesitation, the old woman looked the President in the eye and said, "Speed!"

© 2001, 2002, John D. Trudel